Lesson 6 - Can Election Futures Markets Be More Accurate Than Polls?
The students examine results from opinion polls conducted near the end of the 2004 presidential campaign. They compare results from several national polls to those of the Iowa Electronic Markets (hereafter, the IEM), an online futures market, to predict the outcome of the 2004 race. They read and discuss a handout which allows them to compare the performance of opinion polls and the IEM in predicting election outcomes. Finally, the students learn how well the IEM performed in the presidential campaign of 2008.
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Glossary of Terms and Concepts
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Standards in Economics